Modelling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater of the Gaza Coastal Aquifer from Ensemble of Global Climate Model Projections

Abstract

The Gaza Strip is subjected to considerable impacts of climate change that may adversely affect the groundwater resource. A decrease in annual precipitation as well as an increase in temperatures are projected from an ensemble of global climate models. In this study, the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in Gaza coastal aquifer was evaluated. Regional groundwater flow simulations were made by means of a three-dimensional numerical model. The model was calibrated by adjusting model input parameters until a best fit was achieved between simulated and observed water levels. Simulated groundwater levels compared favorably with observed mean groundwater levels measured in observation wells. SEAWAT groundwater transient model with simulated climate change data input without any adaption pumping scenario was developed in order to determine the impacts of climate change on groundwater of the Gaza coastal aquifer. An effective management scenario was developed and examined by the same groundwater transient model. The scenario was generated to adapt with climate change conditions by developing new water resources and managing pumping rates. The results indicated that lack of water is expected to be a problem in the future. Also, the generated and examined solution scenario is a strategic solution for about a thirty year period.

Keywords: Gaza Strip, climate change, groundwater, management, modeling, seawater intrusion