Prediction and Probabilistic Analysis of Accidents in Elevator Installation -Nigerian Experience

Abstract

Elevator installation sector is one of the safe methods of vertical and horizontal travel in high rising buildings (skyscrappers), and sadly hundreds of people suffer extreme injury or death due to elevator installation accident. Most elevator accidents occur during installation of the elevator itself. This paper takes a closer look at elevators industry in Nigeria focusing on the occurence of installation of elevators accident. This paper applied input modelling simulation method to analyse elevator installation accidents occurrences in Nigeria elevator installation sector and develops a model that will predict the probability or risk of elevator installation accidents. Accident records for the period of 2009 were analyzed using probability distribution curve. A probability distribution curve which resembled Poisson distribution was developed. A point statistic estimator was used to confirm the distribution. Hence, a predictive probability model was developed in terms of average mean time between elevator installation accidents and number of operation days. The average mean time between accidents during this period was 73.03 with standard deviation of 67.93. The probability of elevator installation accident occurrence during this periods was 0.0143. The results of this research is an eye opener to the occurrence of accidents in the elevator installation sector. If the lipservice to safety which is the order of day in most service industries in Nigeria continues; the occurrence of accidents in the future will be overwhelming.

Keywords: Elevators, Installation, Risk, Shaft, Probability.