Predictive Land Use Modelling as a Tool for Regulating Urban Development in Yola, Nigeria

Abstract

Analysing land use/cover (LULC) change processes and driving factors of urbanisation can help identify policy measures that can be used to efficiently regulate urban development. CA-Markov principles were adopted to predict urban sprawl to the year 2033 in Yola, Nigeria. The research incorporates socio economic factors in the driving mechanism in Cellular Automata and Markov Chain (CA-Markov) to establish rules for driving forces for urban sprawl specific to Yola Topography using experts’ opinion and residents’ perception. The results provides scientific basis and opportunity to define and apply tools and strategies for managing urban development by reconciling the imperatives of urban development and conservation of environmental resources.

Keywords: LULC, CA-Markov, Modelling, Landsat Images