Measuring Climatic and Hydrological Effects on Cereal crop Production in Bangladesh using Multiple Regression and Measuring Efficiency using Stochastic Frontier Model

Abstract

The objective of this study is to develop a Multiple Regression model to measure the climatic and hydrological effects on cereal crop productions in Bangladesh and Stochastic Frontier model for measuring the production efficiency due to climate and hydrology. The month October, November, December, January and February are taken as “dry season” and  March, April, May, June, July, August, September as  a “summer season” considering the weather and climatic conditions of Bangladesh. From Multiple Regression model, it is found that the Multiple R-squared for maize, barley and wheat production model are 0.9447, 0.8995 and 0.7674 respectively, which are implied to a good model to measure the climatic and hydrological effects on cereal production; and Global test implies that these models are valid linear model. Again, from Stochastic Frontier model, it is found that there is a huge opportunity to increase barley and maize production; and wheat achieves maximum production due to climates and Hydrology in the Bangladesh.

Keywords: Cereal Production, Multiple Regression Model, Efficiency, Stochastic Frontier Model.