Socio-Economic Determinants of the Incidence of Malaria and Correlation Between Meteorological Factors and the Occurrence of Malaria: The Case of Arsi Nagelle District, Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia

Abstract

Climate change and variability can lead to an expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission, and thus increase risk of the disease. The purpose of the current study was to assess the impacts of climate variability on the incidence of malaria in Arsi Nagelle district, Oromia Regional state, Ethiopia. The study was conducted in three rural kebeles, (Haadha-Boso, Kersa-Ilala and Meraro-Hawulo) which were purposively selected as representatives of lowland, midland and highland agro-ecological zones of the district respectively. Quantitative data were collected through household questionnaire survey, while qualitative data were collected through key informant interviews and focus group discussion. Secondary data such as rainfall and temperature were collected from the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia; also data on the incidence of malaria cases were collected from the Health Office of the district. For the questionnaire survey, 143 rural households were randomly selected from the three rural Kebeles. The data was analyzed by using descriptive statistics, probit regression model and Pearson’s correlation analysis. The result revealed that, an average of 65% of the respondents perceived that there has been an increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall in the district. However, there was significant difference between lowland and highland residents on the perception of the climatic variability. The analysis of the secondary data show that, monthly total rainfall was positively correlated with malaria incidence (i.e. the higher the rainfall amount is the higher the incidence of malaria) while mean monthly maximum and mean monthly minimum temperatures were negatively correlated with malaria incidence (i.e. the higher the maximum and minimum temperature will have the probability of being dryness (lower rainfall amount) hence, the lower the incidence of malaria. Educational status, perception and household income, as well as house quality, and accessibility of mosquito nets are the socio-economic determinants that influence the incidence and transmission of malaria in the study areas. Spraying houses with insecticides and the use of insecticide treated mosquito nets were the predominantly adopted preventive strategies against malaria infection practiced in the study area.

Keywords/Phrases: Climate variability, Socio-economic determinants, Malaria incidence, Correlation, Arsi nagelle Woreda.