Markovian Decision Modeling in Dam Projects - Niger Delta River Basin

Abstract

This paper studied simulation modeling in Markovian Decision theory and its application in decision making as well as planning in water resources and environmental engineering. The research objectives deals with the multi-objective values of a River basin for its wide range of purposes such as Economic Efficiency, Regional Economic distribution, State Economic distribution, Social Well-being, and Environmental Quality control. In line with foregoing objectives, the researchers aim at achieving the following: (i) Measures the magnitude of the difference between alternative actions (ii) to present a framework for considering decision making under uncertainty. (iii) to evaluate the optimal policy or strategy or action that maximizes the expected benefit in the River Basin within the available limited resources and funds over the planning period of a course of action or alternatives. The Methodology applied involved Markovian decision model method for River basin. Data collection was based on technical literatures from books, journals, and news papers, River Basin Engineering Development, Parastatals. The analysis and presentation of results were based on simulation of Markovian Models. Furthermore, Contingency association, Chi-square, Pearson Product Moment Correlation were carried out as interaction, reliability and validity tests. However, simulating the river basin variables using Markov chain Homogeneous analysis and policy iterations resulted to a decision policy of allocating resources to the river basin objectives based on a federal government budgetary appropriation of 100 billion Naira. In conclusion  the model had policy decision made as follows: Economic Efficiency [64%], Regional Economic Distribution [9%], State Economic Distribution [19%], Social Well-Being [5%] and Environmental Control [3%] [see Figure 1 and 2]. The results indicate that Markov Chain can be successfully applied in optimum policy investment decision making in multi-objective water resources management.

Keywords: Investment, Optimum, Policy Decision, Dam –projects.

DOI: 10.7176/CER/11-2-10

Publication date:March 31^st 2019