Flood Frequency Analysis of Niandan River at Baro, Nigeria

Abstract

The determination of appropriate probability distribution is crucial for flood – risk reduction and mitigation of flood –induced damages in flood plains. This paper investigates the selection of an appropriate probability distribution for at – site flood frequency analysis using annual maximum series of Niandan River at Baro. The model results were subjected  to five goodness of fit –tests(i.e. Probability plots, Probability Plot Correlation Coefficient (PPCC), Percent bias (PBIAS), Nash- Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE) and RMSE-observations standard deviation (RSR) and performance scoring/ranking to identified the best – fit distribution.The Normal, and Weibull distributions have been identified as the top two distributions for Niandan at baro. Assessment of other of flood frequency analysis studies across Nigeria show that no single distribution has been found appropriate for whole country.  Consequently, research work for the search of best – fit distribution for Nigeria will continue into the future.

Keywords: Flood flow, Flood frequency analysis, PPCC, Flood quantiles, efficiency criteria,

DOI: 10.7176/CER/11-4-03

Publication date:May 31^st 2019