Prediction and probabilistic analysis of accidents in elevator installation -Nigerian Experience

Abstract

Elevator sector is one of the safety methods of travel, and sadly hundreds of people suffer extreme injury or death due to elevator accident. Most elevator accidents occur during installation of the elevator itself. This paper takes a closer look at elevators industry in Nigeria focusing on the occurence of installation of elevators accident in 2009 and come up with the statistical distribution of each of the risk involved in the stages of installation of elevator.

The methodology involves statistical modelling of the occurrence of installation accident. A Poisson sequence or Poisson process is used to develop a model that will predict the probability of accident in installation of elevator.This research concludes that the point statistic estimator for the probability distribution for installation elevators accident for the year 2009 is 0.88.

Keywords: elevators, installation, risk, shaft, probability..