Study On Rainfall Probability Analysis At Allahabad District Of Uttar Pradesh

Abstract

The present investigation included rainfall probability analysis of previous 34 years rainfall data (1980-2013) with the prime objective for prediction of annual rainfall of Allahabad district. The observed values were computed by weibulls formula (1939). The annual rainfall values were estimated by proposed prediction models Viz. Gumbel and Log Normal (Chow 1964). The rainfall data in the above distribution and their corresponding rainfall events were estimated at 2.9, 11.4, 20.0, 40.0, 51.4, 60.0, 80.0 and 97.1 percent probabilities level. The goodness of fit was tested by Chi-square test. It clearly indicates that the Gumbel distribution was found to be best model for predicting the annual rainfall (mm). While Log Normal distribution is fairly close to the observed annual rainfall (mm).

Keywords: Probability analysis, rainfall variability, rainfall, prediction, distribution.