Regression Analysis for the Forecasting of Production and Yield of Wheat Crop in Sindh and Punjab.

Abstract

Wheat is an important and major agriculture crop of Pakistan. The purpose of this study is to fit the Simple regression model and to forecast the value of each indicator for planning purpose. The data set of 30 years (i.e. 1988 – 2018) for Punjab Wheat and Sindh Wheat are collected from Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan and internet also investigated. Econometrics techniques (Trend Curves, Lagged Models, Simple Regression, Correlation and Moving Averages) are applied using Minitab software and MS Excel and observed that: The changes in all indicators with respect to time are positive. The changes in Production for Sindh are less than for Punjab which shows better consistency towards Production of Sindh than that of Punjab. The changes in Yield for Punjab Wheat are larger than for Sindh Wheat. Yield of Wheat Sindh is more consistent than Wheat Punjab. For Production, Poly-2(PP), Poly-6(PS) Exponential and lagged-1 models are preferred due to better results.

Key words: Simple Regression, Exponential Model, Lagged Model, Data, Production, Forecasting, etc.

DOI: 10.7176/JBAH/9-16-06

Publication date: August 31^st 2019