Analyzing Factors that Affect Rice Import Volume in Indonesia

There are four factors that can affect the volume of rice import in Indonesia, they are rice production, gross domestic production (PDB), rice consumption, and increasing population of Indonesian citizens. The study applies qualitative method. The data used in study is secondary data within years of research from 2014 to 2018. Independent variables in this study are rice production (PRODUKSI), gross domestic product (PDP), consumption of rice (KONSUMSI), total population of Indonesian citizens (PENDUDUK). The dependent variable in this study is rice import (IMPORT). The result of study reveals that production of rice (PRODUKSI), gross domestic product (PDP), riceconsumption (KONSUMSI), do not affect toward rice import from 2014 to 2018 period. Meanwhile, total population of Indonesian citizens (PENDUDUK) affect number of rice import in Indonesia from 2014 to 2018.

possibility for government to import the food (Singgih, 2015). The increasing number of population could be controlled if government is able to control its population that will lower the volume of imported rice.

II. Theoretical Framework 1. International trade theory
In one word, international trade could be interpreted as a trade that commenced by two or more countries. International trade become important aspect for industry development of a country. There are several theories that become foundation of international trade which are Adam Smith and David Ricardo superiority comparative theory (Salvatore, 2014). Mercantilism theory was introduced in 17th and 18th century. It is stated that a country will gain profit from international trade, if the country is willing to sacrifice other countries. The theory suggested to limit the number of import, incentive for import action, and it is advisable for government to create a firm law for economic action. Absolute superiority theory by Adam Smith stated that the trade between two countries is based on absolute superiority. Absolute superiority is possessed by a country who is more superiority toward others for a certain product within cheaper production cost, thus other countries who are less superior could trade goods with other countries. There are two ideas provided by Adam Smith theory which are division of labour and international specialization within efficient production. Comparative superiority theory stated that international trade act is occurred as result of different comparative superiority between countries. Comparative superiority will be achieved by country that can mass produce a product within less cost compared to other country. David Ricardo law of comparative superiority becomes a basic for country to perform export and import (Salvatore, 2004).

Demand theory
Law demand stated that price and supply will be inversely proportional within ceteris paribus condition (Mallios, 2004). Ceteris paribus condition stated that the lower price will increase demand of the product, and the higher price will decrease demand for the product. Too expensive price of a product will make consumer to find better alternatives within more reasonable price , (Greco, 2005). It is different from products that have no alternatives or have no substitution products, then the products will only experience low demand (Mankiw, 2008). Because, the people who need it only lowering their demand. 3. Import Import becomes one of international trade action that meant to receive packages of goods or commodities from other countries (Juniantara and Budhi 2012). Factors that triggered import, according to Krugman and Obsfeld (2010:124), are limited human and natural resource to process the materials into consumable goods, impossible goods or services to be produced by a country, and to supply up supply for future.

Rice Import Policy
Regulation and limitation of rice import is already governed by Indonesia. This policy is meant to control the price of rice, to protect consumer to be able to buy within reasonable price, meanwhile from farmer perspective is to receive a reasonable price for the goods that they had harvested. Rice import policy could be seen from kind and quality of imported rice. There are two kinds which are rice with medium and premium quality. 5. Impact of Rice Import Policy Importing rice by government will trigger a long term negative impact for part of farmer. The farmer will suffer from decreasing income. Because, the buyer will be prefer to buy imported rice because of the quality. In one hand, there are several impacts that must be considered by government, one of them is the transforming plantation into industrial area that forced farmer to sell their land in order to build regency, office, or other industrial building. At the end, it will weaken the national food security.

III.Research Procedure
The study applies quantitative method and uses Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) to process the data. The data used in study is secondary data which are retrieved from 2014 to 2018 which is received from Bulog and statistics office of Indonesia. There are two research variables which are dependent and independent variable. The independent variables are rice production (Production), gross domestic product (PDP), consumption of rice (Consumption), total population of Indonesian citizens (Inhabitant). The dependent variable in this study is rice import (Import).  The result of R2 displayed in table 4 reveals the impact of rice production (PRODUKSI), gross domestic product (PDB), rice consumption (KONSUMSI), total population (PENDUDUK) of Indonesian citizens from 2014 to 2018 is 84,734 within signification level of 0,000. This will open the possibility for smaller signification model level which is 0,05. Thus, applied regression model could be used to predict imported rice volume.  Vol.11, No.10, 2020 Result of R2 displayed in table 4 indicates the impact of rice production (Production), gross domestic product (PDB), rice consumption (Consumption), total population (Inhabitant) of Indonesian citizens from toward imported rice volume (Import) from 2014 to 2018 is 0,673. The value means that the impact of rice production (Production), gross domestic product (PDB), rice consumption (Consumption), total population (Inhabitant) of Indonesian citizens from toward imported rice volume (Import) is 67,3%. Meanwhile, the rest 32,7% is affected by other variables that will be completed in future research. Hypothesis 1 stated that rice production (Production) gives impact toward rice import volume (Import). The result of analysis revealed that there is positive impact of rice production toward rice import volume as much as 0,238 within p value of 0,320. According to the explanation, it is concluded that H1 is rejected that stated rice production (Consumption) has no impact toward rice import volume (Import). Because, the imported rice performed by government is meant as future supply of Indonesia (Christianto, 2013). The volume of rice supply determined by government is 20% of total demand.
Hypothesis 2 stated that gross domestic product (PDB) gives impact toward rice import volume (Import). The result of analysis stated that there is positive impact of gross domestic product toward rice import volume as much as 1,188 within p value of 0,155. According to the explanation, it is concluded that H2 is rejected that stated gross domestic product (PDB) has no impact toward rice import volume (Import). The result is supported by previous study conducted by Rugswang and Victorio (2008), Yuniarti (2010), Kwanmas (2010).
Hypothesis 3 stated that rice consumption (Consumption) gives impact toward rice import volume (Import). The result of analysis revealed that there is negative impact of rice consumption toward rice import volume as much as -2041,783 within p value of 0,567. According to the explanation, it is concluded that H3 is rejected that stated rice consumption (Consumption) has no impact toward rice import volume (Import). The change of consumption pattern by society let this phenomenon to happen, they started to change into alternatives food such as oats or corns (Rachman, 2009). The result is contradicted with previous study conducted by Christianto (2013).
Hypothesis 4 stated that total population (Inhabitant) gives impact toward rice import volume (Import). The result of analysis revealed that there is positive impact of total population toward rice import volume as much as 310,806 within p value of 0,001. According to the explanation, it is concluded that H4 is accepted that stated total population (Inhabitant) has impact toward rice import volume (Import). The increasing demand is determined by increasing population of a country, which is why the demand for rice import is increasing. This result is supported by previous study conducted by Dwipayana and Kesumajaya (2014).

V. Conclusion
Based on the revealed finding and discussion above it could be show that Rice production (Production), gross domestic product (PDB), rice consumption (Consumption) have no impact toward rice import volume in Indonesia from 2014 to 2018. Total population (Inhabitant) has impact toward rice import volume in Indonesia from 2014 to 2018.

Suggestions
1. Government must increase rice production volume by providing better support for agriculture sector and increase development in that sector, also the volume of imported rice must be equals to people demand. 2. The future research should add more varieties of variables that can affect imported rice volume and increase the data of research.

VI.References
National statistic center board (BPS