Temporal and Spatial Temperature Trends and Their Implications on Health Conditions in Port Harcourt and Warri in Niger Delta

Abstract

In recent times climate change; global warming or rising temperature have taken centre stage in international concerns and several fora and treaties have been observed with a view of stemming trend, in rising temperatures. This study evaluated 36 (thirty-six) years maximum and minimum annual temperature of Port Harcourt and Warri in Niger Delta (1971 – 2006) to determine trends and identified extreme fluctuation in temperature and their possible implications on health condition of the people. Data used for this study were historical data on temperature of Port Harcourt and Warri sourced from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency’s Archive, Lagos and data on health conditions sourced from the Braithwaite Memorial Specialist Hospital Port Harcourt and Warri Central Hospital Warri. Temperature data was analyzed for long term of thirty six (36) years and short term of 6 years series using Pearson’s Product Moment Correlation Coefficient (r). Other analysis tool used include standardized temperature anomaly index, mean temperature deviation, graphical model of mean annual temperature, five year moving averages etc. Frequencies of health cases were correlated with extreme temperature fluctuation values to determine relationship between temperature trends and health conditions in Port Harcourt and Warri. The result of data analysis showed a direct relationship between temperature of Port Harcourt and Warri (r = 0.79) for the series 1971 – 2006. Mean annual temperature has varied remarkably in Port Harcourt and Warri during the period. The study also established an inverse relationship between extreme temperature and health condition in Warri (r = - 0.55). Specifically inverse relationship was establish between temperature and malaria (r= - 0.04), typhoid (r = - 0.55), measles (r = - 0.01), hypertension (r = - 0.02), hepatitis (r = - 0.75), gastro enteritis (r = - 0.36) and pneumonia (r = - 0.13). Asthma (r = 0.28) and bronchitis (r = 0.02) directly relate with temperature. Observed trends in temperature of Port Harcourt and Warri is in conformity with rising trend of global temperature as revealed by trend models. However, high and low extreme temperature have some influences on human health condition in Port Harcourt and Warri.

Keywords: Temporal, Spatial, Temperature Trends, Health condition, Port Harcourt, Warri.