Projection of Future Climate by Multi-Model Median Approach under GIS Environment along the Gaza Strip, Palestine

Abstract

Climate changes over the Gaza strip area as a semi-arid area is a major factor that affects the developing strategic plans for water sector. This study aims to determine the future climate changes over Gaza strip. Fossil energy intensive (A1F1) with high sensitivity is the emission scenario that was used for the prediction process. The median assembly approach was used to get the representative results from multi General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs. The predicted mean annual temperatures for years 2020, 2050 and 2080 were 20.66 ^oC, 22.48 ^oC and 25.08 ^oC respectively, While 0.85 ^oC, 2.67 ^oC and 5.28 ^oC were the mean annual changes from baseline period for years 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively.  The predicted mean annual precipitation for years 2020, 2050 and 2080 were 294.68 mm/year, 243.70 mm/year and 170.82 mm/year respectively, Hence -7.48, -23.98 and -46.37 mm/year were the predicted mean annual precipitation changes from baseline period for years 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively. The mean annual sea level rise for baseline period was 1.097 cm, in the other hand 9.04 cm, 28.84 cm and 59.85 cm were the predicted mean sea level rise values for years 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively.

Keywords: Climate Change, Gaza Strip, Climate projection, GCM, Emission scenario.