Impacts of Climate Change on a Spatially Distributed Water Balance in the Gaza Strip, Palestine

Abstract

As Mediterranean coastal area, the Gaza Strip is likely to be at high risk for water scarcity due to climate change, thus hydrological studies are necessary. This study aims to investigate the impacts of climate change on water balance elements of the Gaza Strip and generate future projections. The Water Balance computer model (WetSPASS) integrated with the GIS was used for simulating the hydrological cycle for the Gaza Strip coastal aquifer in this study. The mean annual simulated evapotranspiration were 157.34 mm/year, 156.46 mm/year, 151.85 mm/year and 131.44 mm/year for baseline, year 2020, year 2050 and year 2080 respectively. While  34.88 mm /year, 32.35 mm /year, 26.73 mm /year and 18.71 mm /year were the mean annual  simulated surface runoff for baseline, year 2020, year 2050 and year 2080 respectively. The  mean annual simulated groundwater recharge were 125.33 mm/year, 105.07 mm/year, 64.44 mm/year and 20.14 mm/year for baseline, year 2020, year 2050 and year 2080 respectively. The mean simulated interception values were 8.31 mm/year, 7.71 mm/year, 6.41 mm/year and 4.56 mm/year for baseline, 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively. The main conclusion from projected water balance elements is that Gaza Strip will be in a condition of severe water scarcity risk.

Keywords: water balance, climate change, WetSPASS, Gaza Strip