Observed and Perceived Climate Change and Variability and Small Holder Farmers’ Vulnerability: The Case of Janamora District, Northwestern Ethiopia

Abstract

In the context of observed climate change and variability and their impact on livelihoods; This study intended to assess farmers’ vulnerability to climate change and variability in Janamora district, northwestern Ethiopia. Primary data for the study was collected through questionnaire from 138 respondents selected through multi-stage sampling technique based on agro-ecology. Secondary data was collected from meteorological stations. Mann-Kendall and Chi-square tests were employed to test observed and perceived climate change and variability respectively. While LVI and LVI-IPCC methods were used to assess farmers’ vulnerability to climate change and variability using SPSS version 23. The results revealed significant increasing trend in annual average temperature in all stations except Debark and insignificant trend in annual rainfall as well as a higher rainfall variability. Similarly, 69.6 and 80.4% of the interviewed farmers were aware of an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall respectively. Moreover, χ² test showed that a significant variation (significant at P<0.05) in perception to temperature and rainfall between agro-ecology. The overall vulnerability result in the case of LVI was 0.425, 0.454 and 0.471 for Dega, Woyna Dega and Kolla agro-ecological zones respectively. Similar result was found using the LVI-IPCC approach which was 0.035, 0.041 and 0.049 for Dega, Woyna Dega and Kolla agro-ecological zones respectively. Both LVI and LVI-IPCC results revealed that Kolla was the most vulnerable and Dega was the least vulnerable to climate change and variability. The study suggested improving the literacy level and integrating rural development schemes to increase adaptive capacity. Similarly, further studies should be conducted in the future.

Keywords: Perception, Vulnerability, Climate Change and Variability, Livelihood, Janamora

DOI: 10.7176/JEES/9-8-04

Publication date: August 31^st 2019