Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Past and Projected Climate Over Dairy Production Zones: A Case of Nandi County, Kenya

Abstract

Climate change is regarded as a significant global environmental threat. This study assesses downscaled projections of climate change over dairy production regions (Nandi County) of Kenya using Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA4) outputs driven by the eight (8) coordinated regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) models. Climate baseline period (1971-2000) was used to evaluate CORDEX model performance against different sources of precipitation and temperature observations. Graphical and statistical approaches which correlation; Mann-Kendall test and nonparametric Sen’s method were used to assess the trends in both past and future climate. Spatial analysis involved mapping of climate variables. Assessment of the skill of CORDEX models shows significant bias in the individual models in simulating precipitation. However, maximum and minimum temperatures performed well based on both individual and ensemble based outputs. CORDEX model outputs were comparable to observations, and either overestimated or underestimated the climate. Past and projected precipitation remains bimodal and highly variable (increasing/decreasing) in both space and time. Positive change between baseline and projected temperatures were noted for RCP45 and RCP85. As a response to the effects of climate variability and change, adoption of climate smart agricultural technologies is necessary to ensure that smallholder farmers put adequate measures to adapt and mitigate impact of climate change

Keywords: Precipitation; temperature; climate; projections; CORDEX

DOI: 10.7176/JEES/10-6-06

Publication date:June 30^th 2020