Wildfire hazard and Risk modelling in the Northern regions of Ghana using GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Making Analysis

Abstract

There has been tremendous adverse impact of fire outbreaks across the world over the last two decades. The human cost has been devastating and economic losses have exceeded an annual average of US$2500 million. Regardless of its importance in plant community regeneration, wildfires have been tremendously devastative to human societies and Earth’s ecosystems. To adequately manage wildfires and reduce their adverse effects, estimating the probability of occurrence of wildfires and critically assessing the spatially variable environmental conditions that affect the propagation and impact of these fires is imperative. This study integrates the broader biophysical and environmental variables with anthropogenic factors to model and predict spatial variation in hazard, vulnerability and risk of wildfires in the Savannah, Northeast and Northern regions of Ghana. These areas are characterised by endemic poverty and agrarian activity, which is the major source of livelihood for about 71% of the population. Disasters such as wildfires are therefore detrimental, severely undermining the natural capital relied on for livelihoods and further aggravating the high poverty rates in these regions. Against this backdrop, a GIS-based Multi Criteria Decision Making Analysis method (GIS-MCDA) – the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to map wildfire hazard and risk within these regions to aid response and mitigation. A wildfire risk map was then produced by developing and integrating hazard and vulnerability models. Results indicate that about 71.7% (48035 ) of the study area is highly exposed to wildfire hazard and about 13% of the study region is likely to experience the greatest risk when wildfires occur, although this is concentrated around urban settlements. It is recommended that future studies integrate intersectional social and economic characteristics to provide a more robust definition of vulnerable and at-risk communities and cultural infrastructure.

Keywords: Wildfires, Vulnerability, Risk, GIS multi-criteria decision making, Northern Ghana

DOI: 10.7176/JEES/10-11-02

Publication date: November 30^th 2020