Analyzing Precipitation Climatology; and Past and Future Variation Trends in Precipitation and Temperature of Arba Minch and Chencha Districts, Gamo Highlands, Ethiopia (for the period 1981-2100)

Abstract

Global climate is changing significantly causing changes in the climatic variables especially, precipitation and temperature. This study was conducted to analyze the change in precipitation and temperature in two Arba minch and Chencha districts, Southern Ethiopia. Daily observed rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature data were collected from the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency for the years 1981 to 2018. The data from the Climate Hazards Center Infrared precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) was used to fill the missing data. REMO2009, a regional climate model (RCM), was used to extract daily rainfall and temperature data for the period 1981-2100, two representative concentration pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used for the projection. The model data was corrected according to the observation prior to analysis. The results revealed that the study area has bimodal rainfall characteristics with the peaks in April and October of the first and second main rainy seasons respectively. In a decadal time period, there is a shift in the peak of precipitation during the first main rainy season, indicating seasonal shift. The total rainfall received over a decadal time period also varies significantly. In terms of future projections, seasonal rainfall peaks will remain similar on average, but total rainfall will continue to be highly variable. The projection also show that the second main rainy season for both stations will vanish completely by the end of the century, resulting in mono-modal rainfall characteristics.

Keywords: Climate Change, Regional Climate Models, representative concentration pathways

DOI: 10.7176/JEES/11-7-03

Publication date:July 31^st 2021