Assessment of Extreme Heat Wave Magnitude in Present Climate in the Pastoral Region of Afar, Ethiopia

Abstract

Heatwaves have been a prominent issue in climate change studies due to the extreme heatwaves that have occurred globally over the past few decades. Extreme heat waves are hitting Ethiopia, which has led to higher rates of death and morbidity as well as higher water and energy needs. This study presents for the first time a climatological analysis of heatwave magnitude for a pastoral region of Afar using the heatwave magnitude index daily (HWMId) index. The study analyzed the intensity of heatwave for the period 1981-2020, as well as for the heatwave event in 2015 using gauged dataset. The findings showed that each year, the proportion of hot days and hot nights increased by 0.3 and 0.3 days per year. The areal aggregated temperature anomaly indicated increasing each year by +0.07 and +0.05 ⁰ C for maximum and minimum temperature respectively. 2015, 2016, and 2015 were considered as the hottest years in the last 40 years, with 2015 being one of the warmest years on record with an anomaly of +1.8 °C for maximum temperature and 1.3 °C for minimum temperature. The finding also clearly indicated that most parts of the study area recorded severe to very extreme heatwaves scored from 4 to 16. The increase in a heatwave may have a negative impact on health, water availability and food security. Therefore, the finding of this study is very important to develop early warning systems that could manage the risk of anomalously extreme weather events.

Keywords:Afar Region, Extreme climate indices, Heatwave, Heatwave magnitude index, Pastoralists, Temperature.

DOI: 10.7176/JEES/13-7-02

Publication date:September 30^th 2023