Climate Variation Assessment Based on Rainfall and Temperature in Ibadan, South-Western, Nigeria

Abstract

In recent times and across the globe, the concept of climate has gained much relevance because of its dynamic and complex nature and the significant influence it has on various aspects of the environment, including the increasing threat of global climate change. This study focuses on the assessment of climatic variation in Ibadan region based on the variations in rainfall and temperature within the period 1970-2012. Time Series Analysis was used to determine the trend of total rainfall and average minimum temperature within the period 1970-2012. The 5-Year Moving Average was used to smoothen the time series and to eliminate unwanted fluctuations. Linear Regression was used to estimate the value of variable Y (total rainfall or average minimum temperature), corresponding to a given value of variable X (time), while Correlation Analysis was used to determine the relationship between total rainfall and average minimum temperature within the study period. Furthermore, the study focused on the spatial variations of total rainfall and average minimum temperature in the study area. The result revealed that there is an upward trend in total rainfall within the period under study. And also there is an upward trend in average minimum temperature. Additionally, there is a positive relationship between total rainfall and average minimum temperature.

Keywords: Climate variation, rainfall and temperature, Correlation, Linear Regression, 5-year moving average