Estimation of Growth Model for Population of Ethiopia Using Least Square Method

Abstract

The purpose of this study focused on modeling the population of Ethiopia using different models and estimating the models parameters via least square method. The models, that were applied for the population growth, were Malthus growth model, Logistic growth model and General growth model. To identify the models which performed effectively in prediction of the actual population, the measure accuracy has been used, such that the models satisfying the criteria of the measure of accuracy is the best statistical model.  The results of the analysis were presented using tables and graphical form which are very good to perform comparison for the effectiveness of the models. In this study, MAPE, RSE, MAD and R2 which are considered to measure the accuracy of the models. Malthus growth model, Logistic growth model and General growth model used the population of Ethiopia from 1980 to 2020 inclusive, the data was obtained from international data base(IDB). R studio 3.6.3 were used to estimate the models parameters using simple codes. The study proposed to project the population of Ethiopia via General growth model which performed best in measure of accuracies that makes it effective and efficient as compare with the other models. The model had the smallest RSE (492,155), MAPE (0.75%) and MAD (379,942) as well as the highest R2(99.97%) relative to the other models.

Keywords: Logistic model, parameter estimation, Malthus model, General model, selection methods

DOI: 10.7176/JNSR/12-1-05

Publication date: January 31^st 2021