Households Vulnerability to Climate Change in Drought Prone Agro-ecosystems of Northeastern Ethiopia

Abstract

Climate change is seriously affecting households who are mainly depending on rain-fed farming agriculture and pastoral/agro-pastoral way of life in different agro-ecosystems. Hence, households’ level of vulnerability analysis to climate change is very important to know the vulnerability of local households in different agro-ecosystems so as to tap their potentials for climate change adaptation at the grass root level. Accordingly, this article examined climate change vulnerability of households in highland mixed farming, lowland mixed farming, agro-pastoral, and pastoral agro-ecosystems in drought prone areas of northeastern Ethiopia focusing on Kobo and Golina districts in Amhara and Afar regions respectively. Data gathered from secondary sources, observation, key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and household survey to address the problem comprehensively. Consequently, quantitative data analyzed by SPSS and STATA software whereas qualitative information analyzed by thematic analysis. More specifically, two analytical models used to perform quantitative analysis. Firstly, principal component analysis used to calculate adaptive capacity, sensitivity, exposure and vulnerability indexes of households in each agro-ecosystem. Secondly, ordered probit model fitted to examine the determinants of highly, moderately and less vulnerable categories of households at each agro-ecosystem. The findings have shown that while households in lowland mixed farming agro-ecosystem are less vulnerable, households in agro-pastoral agro-ecosystem are more vulnerable. However, not all households in lowland mixed farming agro-ecosystems are less vulnerable and not all households in agro-pastoral agro-ecosystems are more vulnerable. Hence, it is recommended that households’ specific adaptive capacity should be improved through mainly empowering female-headed households, expanding education, developing irrigation schemes, and creating access to affordable credit and appropriate extension services in the study areas as it reduces their sensitivity and finally their overall vulnerability.

Keywords: climate change, vulnerability, drought-prone, principal component analysis, ordered probit

DOI: 10.7176/JNSR/13-5-05

Publication date:March 31^st 2021