Measuring Climatic and Hydrological Effects on Cash Crop Production and Production Forecasting in Bangladesh Using ARIMAX Model

Abstract

The objective of this study is to measure the climatic and hydrological effects on cash crop productions in Bangladesh using Box-Jenkins Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model with external regressor variables, that is, ARIMAX model. At the same time, forecasting cash crop production using the same model under consideration of the climatic and hydrological effects. It is not very easy to measure the climatic and hydrological effects on different types of agricultural crop production in as usual regression model because of time sequence dataset. Because of time sequence data, Box-Jenkins ARIMAX model is used in this study to measure the climatic and hydrological effects on different major cash crop production in Bangladesh, where climatic and hydrological variables are used as external regressor variable. This is the new study to measure climatic and hydrological effects on crop production using ARIMAX model. The best fitted ARIMAX model for Sugarcane, Tea, Tobacco and Cotton production are ARIMAX(0,1,1), ARIMAX(0,1,1), ARIMAX(0,1,1), ARIMAX(1,1,0) respectively.

Keywords: Climate, Hydrology, Cash Crop, ARIMAX Model, Forecasting, Bangladesh.