Modeling Road Traffic Fatality Cases in Ghana.

Abstract

Road traffic fatalities are of major concern in Ghana. According to the annual report of National Road Safety Commission (NRSC), 2,047 road traffic fatality cases were recorded in the year 2007 which is an increase of 29.5% over that of the year 2000 (NRSC, 2007 Report). Relative to the year 2001(NRSC, 2001) the 2010 figures for fatal crashes and fatalities also recorded corresponding increases of 34.1% and 19.6% respectively. Using annual road fatality data for the period 1991-2011 from the National Road Safety Commission and Building and Road Research Institute (BRRI) in Ghana, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model has been utilized to study the trend and pattern of road fatalities in Ghana. The results showed that road traffic fatalities in the country increased over the period of study. Moreover, a forecasting approach indicates that road traffic fatalities would continue to increase over the next five years.

Keywords: Accident, Autoregressive (AR), Moving average (MA) and ARIMA.