Forecasting Monthly Maternal Mortality in the Bawku Municipality, Ghana Using SARIMA

Abstract

Maternal mortality is defined as the death of a woman while pregnant or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy, irrespective of the duration and site of the pregnancy, from any cause related to or aggravated by the pregnancy or its management. Maternal mortality which accounts for 14% of all female deaths is still the second largest cause of female deaths in Ghana. Maternal mortality is very high in the northern regions of Ghana hence the need to model and forecast maternal mortality data to give insight to public health workers so as to combat any expected high maternal mortality. This study therefore models and also forecast future maternal mortality trends in the Bawku Municipality of the Upper East Region of Ghana using Box-Jenkins Approach. Analyses were based on monthly data available at the Biostatistics department of the municipal hospital. Results show that SARIMA (3, 0, 0) × (1, 1, 2)₁₂ adequately models the maternal mortality data. The forecasted values also revealed that, maternal mortality cases increased during the months of May to July and from September to December, which is an insight for public health workers.

Keywords: Bawku-Ghana, Maternal Mortality, SARIMA, Box-Jenkins Approach