Modelling the Transmission Dynamics of HIV and HBV Co-epidemics: Analysis and Simulation.

Abstract

The prevalence of Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) and Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) co-infection have been on the increase. Moreover, none of these two diseases has a cure for now while both diseases are very deadly. However, the mode of transmission of these diseases are closely related and this highly predisposes individuals to co-infection. There is, therefore, the need to initiate effective control measures that would forestall the co-epidemic of the two diseases in our society, considering the grave implications of such situation. Consequently, a deterministic model for HIV and HBV co-epidemic which unveils measures that should be implemented to avoid the menace associated with the co-epidemic is considered. The model is qualitatively analyzed and the model basic reproduction number is derived. The criteria for the stability of each of the model equilibria are established. The model is numerically solved and simulated for the different scenarios of the co-epidemic. The findings from the simulations are discussed.

Keywords: Hepatitis B Virus, Human immunodeficiency virus, Co-epidemic, Disease prevalence, Equilibrium solution, Stability analysis