Modelling the Spread of COVID-19 with Impact of Awareness and Medical Assistance

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 originated from Wuhan, China and spread rapidly across the globe. The virus was first identified in Nigeria on 27^th February, 2020 and announced by the Minister of Health on 28^th February, 2020 through a press briefing. As at 4^th May, 2020, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control recorded a total of 2,802 confirmed cases of COVID-19 individuals with 93 fatalities. Available data from inception to 4^th May, 2020 were extracted from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) situation reports and used to trace the epidemic curves of COVID-19 in Nigeria. Furthermore, the disease transmission rate and the basic reproduction number were estimated by using an SEIHR epidemic model with the influence of awareness and medical assistance through MATLAB application. The results of the numerical evaluation of the model indicated that awareness dissemination aid in reducing the spread of COVID-19 and medical assistance has significant impact. The disease transmission rate and the basic reproduction number were estimated as  and  respectively. While the analysis predicted that the epidemic peak of COVID-19 in Nigeria will occur approximately 216 days from the inception of NCDC situation report. The overall outcome of the analysis advocates for more awareness campaign, accessible medical assistance and proper enforcement of adherence to strict measures for the control and possibly elimination of COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19, Nigeria, Model, Basic reproduction number, Epidemic peak