Modelling the impact of insecurity on human existence and agricultural activities

Abstract

Food constitutes one of the basic necessities of life and the availability of food supply to all and sundry provides the pedestals upon which human security is defined. In addition, the general quest for global development and advancement are often crippled in a society governed by food scarcity or insecurity. The cases of food and nutritional insecurity seems to be a worldwide challenge calling for urgent interventions, especially in this advent of banditry and herdsmen-farmers conflicts, a devastating state with enormous negative impacts on both human lives and the environs. This paper uses the concept of dynamical systems to derive a mathematical model that evaluates the impact of herdsmen/bandits attacks on the lives of farmers and their agricultural activities. The analytical outcome of the model is supplemented with numerical simulations using MATLAB mathematical applications. The results show that there exist significance influence of the exposure rate of the susceptible and the sponsoring of herdsmen attacks by some elites on the lives of farmers and the low engagement in agricultural activities. In addition, the number of migrants (including those that escape the nest of herdsmen with or without injury) increases in search for treatment and/or safety in nearby communities.  The analysis of some of the model parameters also provided useful information about the system dynamics leading to possible measures in curtailing insecurity for harmonious living among herdsmen and farmers.

Keywords: Modelling, Agriculture, Herdsmen, Insecurity, Dynamical systems, Analysis