COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Early Transmission Dynamics in Nigeria

Abstract

The novel coronavirus COVID-19 originally identified in December 2019, based on the data issued by March 30, 2020 daily report, the epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 so far has caused 693224 cases and resulted in 33106 deaths in more than 200 countries. Referring to the data reported, World Health Organization declared the outbreak a pandemic. Several Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19), showed high transmission capacity and morbidity. In this way, WHO suggests that the most efficient method for controlling transmission is social isolation/quarantine to the population. New cases of the pandemic arose everyday but Nigeria recorded its first death in 23rd March, 2020. The study used a secondary data culled from Worldometer from March 23, 2020 – May 5, 2020. The study examined the polynomial relationship between day and new cases of coronavirus in Nigeria and also check whether new cases will be predicted. Though, linear regression model was fitted to check the model that best fit the data. Result showedthat days had a positive effect on new cases and was found significant at P-value < 0.01 (1% significance level) for both linear and non-linear regression model. It was also revealed that nonlinear regression model best fit the model with an improved adjusted R square. It was established that there is a statistically significant relationship between days and new cases.However, government should take proper measures to reduce the spread of coronavirus and law enforcement the measures should be put into consideration.

Keywords: Coronavirus, relationship, New cases, New death, Model

DOI: 10.7176/RHSS/12-9-02

Publication date:May 31^st 2022