Development of a Fourier Series Forecasting Model for Predicting the Sales Volume of Selected Manufacturing Company

Abstract

The need for proper planning in a production company is pivotal; hence, proper prediction of forecasting is required to facilitate effective planning. In solving this forecasting problem, model is required to be developed to meet with specialized trend of occurrence for the output value.  In this paper, a Fourier series forecasting model was developed for predicting the future sales volume of a plant /production company. A Fourier series of cosine odd function was used coupled with a straight line equation for the model development. The data were collected from Honda motorcycle sales outlet in Apapa, Lagos State, Local bottled water factory in Ado – Ekiti and a local bottling company culled from the Journal of National Institute of Engineering Management. The model was developed based on the trend of occurrence which is sinusoidal in nature. From testing and validation of the model, the result shows a high degree of dependability and correlation of 0.98 between the data of model developed and data collected from companies. Finally, the developed forecasting model can be used for budget preparation, production planning and sales budgeting in a Plant / Production Company.

Keywords: Forecasting, Sales Volume, Fourier series, sinusoidal, model