Adaptive Cooperative Learning Methodology for Oil Spillage Pattern Clustering and Prediction

Abstract

The serious environmental, economic and social consequences of oil spillages could devastate any nation of the world. Notable aftermath of this effect include loss of (or serious threat to) lives, huge financial losses, and colossal damage to the ecosystem. Hence, understanding the pattern and  making precise predictions in real time is required (as opposed to existing rough and discrete prediction) to give decision makers a more realistic picture of environment. This paper seeks to address this problem by exploiting oil spillage features with sets of collected data of oil spillage scenarios. The proposed system integrates three state-of-the-art tools: self organizing maps, (SOM), ensembles of deep neural network (k-DNN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). It begins with unsupervised learning using SOM, where four natural clusters were discovered and used in making the data suitable for classification and prediction (supervised learning) by ensembles of k-DNN and ANFIS. Results obtained showed the significant classification and prediction improvements, which is largely attributed to the hybrid learning approach, ensemble learning and cognitive reasoning capabilities. However, optimization of k-DNN structure and weights would be needed for speed enhancement. The system would provide a means of understanding the nature, type and severity of oil spillages thereby facilitating a rapid response to impending oils spillages.

Keywords: SOM, ANFIS, Fuzzy Logic, Neural Network, Oil Spillage, Ensemble Learning