Analysis of Food Crop Output Volatility in Agricultural Policy Programme Regimes in Nigeria

Abstract

The study analyzed food crop output volatility in different agricultural policy programme periods in Nigeria. Data from FAO and publications of Central Bank of Nigeria covering the period 1961 to 2009 was used in the study. Unit root test was conducted on the specified time series. The GARCH (1,1) model was used to generate the food crop output volatility. A combination of descriptive analysis and analysis of variance model (ANOVA) based on OLS estimation technique was used to analyze data. The results revealed that Pre-Operation Feed the Nation period (1961-1976) and Structural Adjustment Programme (1986-1993) period were the most volatile sub periods for most food crop outputs in the country. Whereas, food crop outputs were most stable during the Operation Feed the Nation period (1976-1979) and Green Revolution period (1980-1985). Also, the mean food crop outputs showed a progressive growth rate across the policy programme periods since 1961, and were best during Post Structural Adjustment period (1994-2009). The result of the ANOVA prove the fact that the agricultural policy programmes actually influenced key food crop outputs and their volatilities; but these influences were mixed and inconsistence across food crop enterprises and policy regimes in the country. Following the results of the study, we recommend that government should formulate appropriate specific food crop policy packages as part of the holistic agricultural policy programme. This kind of policy programme would ensure quick intervention and promote result oriented food crop policy programme in the country.

Keywords: Food, Crop, Volatility, GARCH, Policy, Agriculture