A Seasonal Arima Model for Nigerian Gross Domestic Product

Abstract

Time series analysis of Nigerian Gross Domestic Product series is done. A seasonal difference and then a non-seasonal one were obtained. The correlogram of the differenced series revealed seasonality of order 4. It also reveals an autocorrelation structure of a known seasonal model involving a seasonal autoregressive component of order one and a non-seasonal moving average component of order one. The model has been shown to be adequate.

Keywords: Gross Domestic Product, ARIMA modelling, Seasonal models, Nigeria.