Model Formulation for Predicting Future Highway Armed Robbery Incidents in Nigeria

Abstract

Insecurity is a topical issue in Nigeria today. Loss of lives and valuables on Nigerian roads induced by crime and criminalities is on the increase and worrisome. The main aim of this paper is to propose a model for predicting future Highway Armed Robbery incidents through the analysis of the current trends of Highway Armed Robbery incidents (HARIs) in Nigeria from 2009-2014. Statistical analysis was done using Microsoft Excel and SPSS version 20. The analysis shows an increasing trend in HARIs in Nigeria. Furthermore, regression analysis was done and the eleven models available namely: Linear, Logarithmic, Inverse, Quadratic, Cubic, Compound, Power, S, Growth, Exponential, Logistic were estimated and the model with the highest R square value (R²) was selected as the best Curvefit for the data and thus used for the model of prediction. The model that has been proposed can be used for predicting future HARIs that may guide policy makers and Security Personnel.

Keywords: Highway robbery, transportation, model formulation, Nigeria.