Projecting the Implication of Rapid Urban Population Growth on Urban Facilities in Amhara Region: An Application of SPECTRUM Model

Abstract

In recent times, the world is rapidly becoming urban. Such rapid urban expansion is particularly notable in Africa and Asia. Ethiopia is characterized by rapid rate of urbanization, but low proportion of urban population. Despite this, it has recorded a relatively high growth rate of urban population. However, such high growth rate is not often accompanied by the development in socio-economic infrastructure, economic and employment capacity of the urban centers to support the growing urban population. Amhara region is one of the least-urbanized regions in Ethiopia. The majority of living quarters in most cities and towns of the region are nothing more than slums. Urban infrastructures are already seriously overtaxed by the burgeoning population and providing adequate housing, water, sewerage, electricity, and other services will only become more difficult as the population living in cities continues to grow. Thus, accurate, consistent and timely projected data on urban population growth and its implication is a key input to better assess the current and future needs with respect to urban growth and to set policy priorities to promote inclusive and equitable urban development. Thus, this study aims to project and raise awareness about the implication of rapid urban population growth on urban development in Amhara region using RAPID Module in the SPECTRUM Model from 2007 to 2037 based on hypothetical assumptions. The study employed secondary data sources. For the sake of convenience, an attempt has been made to project the social and economic consequences of high fertility and rapid population growth on urban development in Amhara region using RAPID Module. The data were analyzed using SPECTRUM Suit 4 Model. Two different population scenarios were assumed using a demographic projection tool. Using RAPID module; the total urban population, number of population in major cities, annual new urban household growth and trends of urban youth growth in urban centers were projected from 2007-2037. The result revealed the proportion of people resides in urban area of Amhara region will be increasing. As a result urban facilities will be overstretched, health manpower resources will become inadequate and the situation seems to deteriorate despite genuine efforts to mitigate the extenuating circumstances. Crowded urban neighborhoods, combined with poor sanitary conditions and inadequate waste removal, create situations favorable to the spread of infectious diseases. Furthermore, housing shortage will be a serious concern in Amhara region urban areas. The housing problem will not be confined to low-income groups but also acute among the medium income groups. The projection result suggests that the urban population would grow at a higher rate in the region. Such rapid urbanization can also fail to sustain healthy urban populations when it outstrips with basic services. Thus, Amhara region has to make advance preparations to deal with the basic needs of its growing urban population in terms of jobs and housing as well as education, water, energy and health services. Moreover, the government should also create an enabling environment for inclusive local economic development that will create jobs and employment opportunities to the youth, among others.

Keywords: Urban; Urbanization; RAPID; SPECTRUM; Projection.