Livebirth Registrations in Nigeria: Analytical Approach Using Arima Model

Abstract

Livebirth registration is an aspect of civil registration system which is the continuous and compulsory recording of the occurrence and characteristics of vital events in accordance with the legal requirements of a country. Civil registration provides a continuous record of vital events. This paper examines the stationarity in Livebrith registration among the two  age – groups and a model was fitted to the age – groups. Data on www.rapidsmsnigeria.org was used. The data were analyzed using R programming language version 3.4.0. Time series analysis was used to analyze and forecast from the data presented. It shows that group Under 1 and Under 5 years are stationary. Only Under 5 years forecast shows that there is a constant in the data and Box – Ljung shows that the residual plots are dependent. It was concluded that there is substantial growth in the registration of livebirth in Nigeria despite the instability in the system during the specified period. Also, the Augmented Dickey – Fuller Test (ADF) test and Philip Perron (PP) Test implies that the more negative the test is the stronger is the model. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) approach model stands as the best model for prediction based on this series.

Keywords: Live birth, Time series, Nigeria, Civil Registration system, ARIMA model

DOI: 10.7176/DCS/12-4-05

Publication date: April 30^th 2022