The Choice of the Exchange Policies in the Primary Commodity Exporting Countries: Study of the Competitiveness in Morocco

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate and derive the degree of misalignment for the Moroccan Dirham. Our estimate suggest that the  fixed  exchange rate regime adopted by Morocco since 1973 is not responsible for stagnating exports and trade deficit  since the Dirham is close to its equilibrium level. These findings while exonerating the exchange rate from being a cause of low growth and not sufficiently dynamic exports sector, should lead us to consider other factors that could explain the low economic performances.

Keywords: real exchange rate misalignment, fixed exchange regime, competitiveness, trade deficit, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). Specialization in exports on clothes and textile, dependence on imported capital goods and energy product.