Implications of Russia-Ukraine War to Food Security in Africa: A Case Study of Djibouti and Tanzania

Abstract

This qualitative research investigated the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on food security in Africa, focusing on Djibouti and Tanzania through interviews and document analysis. The objective was to assess the disruptions in essential imports from the conflicting nations and the adaptive capacities of these countries. Employing a qualitative methodology, data were collected from fifteen participants selected through purposive sampling. Key informant interviews and documentary analysis were utilized to gather information. Through qualitative content and thematic analysis, the study identified trends related to import dependency, policy responses, challenges to resilience, and the overall impact on food security. The findings revealed that both Djibouti and Tanzania are significantly dependent on imports for their cereal requirements, particularly wheat and maize sourced from Russia and Ukraine. The conflict led to disruptions in Black Sea exports, resulting in increased prices and potential shortages. Although initial panic subsided as governments implemented measures such as releasing reserves and reducing tariffs, structural limitations hindered long-term solutions. Djibouti's arable land is less than 1%, which restricts its ability to substitute imports. In contrast, Tanzania possesses greater agricultural potential; however, underdeveloped irrigation systems and low crop yields impede its resilience. International collaboration facilitated humanitarian and financial assistance, yet geopolitical complexities arising from the broader conflict delayed the establishment of coordinated strategies, thereby reducing effectiveness. The study concluded that the mixed short-term effectiveness of resource constraints was intensified by geopolitical instability, highlighting the need for regional contingency planning. Additionally, it was determined that vulnerabilities arising from agricultural deficits exacerbated the impacts, necessitating multi-level cooperation to address existing gaps.

Keywords: Russia-Ukraine war, dependency, international trade, diplomacy, humanitarian aid.

DOI: 10.7176/IAGS/103-02

Publication date: January 31st 2026