Study of BRIC countries in the financial turmoil

Abstract

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship among the emerging countries specially BRIC countries in condition of financial turmoil. The time span from the year 2008 till now seemed to be full of financial tantrum Sub Prime Crisis, US debt Crisis and European debt crisis. This financial ups and down seemed to have embraced BRIC countries as well. In this paper I attempted to quantify the interrelationship between these promising countries. Popular Indices of BRIC countries have taken as the proxy of their Stock market. In this paper I have taken IBOV, RTS Index, S&P Nifty, SCI (Shanghai Composite index) as the proxy for the stock market of BRIC countries respectively. Several statistical tests have been applied in order to study the behavior and dynamics of time series of BRIC countries indices. The period for the study is taken from January 2008 to November 2011 using the daily closing indices. Kurtosis, Skewness and Jarqus-Bera test is done to investigate the normal distribution of time series and it is found them non-normally distributed. Though Unit root test, it is established that all these time series indices are stationary at the level form itself. Granger Causality test is done to find out the causal relationship between the time series of BRIC countries indices.

Keywords: Stock Return, Unit Root Test, Correlation test, Granger Causality