The Global Innovation Index: Insight for Turkey with time series analysis

Abstract

The aim of this study is to both to discuss the realized assets with the expected values and to decide for the needs of  2015 and foretell the precautions to be taken in necessary fields by using the data related with Turkey that are given in  all indicators in  “The Global Innovation Index” which is being  published since 2007 and covers all the countries all over the world by The Business School for the World (INSEAD) that is related with innovation, the most important concept in the survival of enterprises. Innovation concept and being innovative have recently become an important concern in the fields of business and management as in every other. During the last 20 years innovation has found itself a significantly effective investigation area in various social sciences and have become the center of attraction by the executive committees. Our expectations to be derived from this study is to bring forward the innovation status of Turkey, predict for the 2015 and by informing the government, enterprises and individuals to create awareness among governors, business world, executives, information world, investors, academicians and universities and be a guide for their future plans, strategies and development of executive means and tools.

In this study we are examining to forecast a time series model based on Innovation Ranks for Turkey among 132 countries in 2010, 125 countries in 2011, 141 countries in 2012, 142 countries in 2013 and 144 countries in 2014 by using the ARIMA model statistical analysis. Rank values and expected rank values for each indicator between 2010-2014 and forecasting values for 2015 and their confidence intervals have been given. The statistics of the study were performed by using SPSS 20.0 package program. The expected and realized positions of Turkey over the world in terms of each indicator have been debated and parameters strengthened, weakened or did not show development have been tried to be established.

P values of the indicators in the forecasting ARIMA model and the direction of the graphics were taken into consideration and the status with respect to innovation basic indicators and sub indicators was given in a table. As a result of the study, it was determined that among the basic indicators, the human capital&research indicator (2) shows that policies are correct and it is necessary to keep the system the same way; market sophistication indicator (4) has a positive impact but needs to be supported with respect to the criteria in the sub indicators for 2015; the institutions indicator (1) and the creative outputs indicator (7) show that current policies have no use, there is no negative or positive progress and comprehensive new action plans need to be implemented; business sophistication indicator (5) shows that there may be negative progress due to wrong policies and that urgent action plans are required; infrastructure indicator (3) shows that there is negative progress due to wrong policies and urgent action plans are necessary.

Keywords: Innovation, Turkey Innovation Value, Global Innovation Index, Innovative, management