Non-Compartmental S-I-S Modeling Of Hiv Prevalence In 7 Countries Of The World

Abstract

Two non-compartmental SIS models were developed, one for infection (I or H) and the other for susceptible (S or SH).  HIV percentage prevalence data were obtained via the internet.  Data for susceptible percentage to HIV were computed from HIV data, knowing that  ?  = 1.  The data were used to validate the models.  The coefficients of correlation for different countries tested with the models were found to be reasonably very high, showing that the models fitted the data almost perfectly.  The ultimate prevalence, intersection time for HIV and susceptible to HIV prevalence, the peak time and its prevalence, and the exhaustion time of HIV prevalence for different countries were computed. These non-compartmental SIS models could be used for different countries in making valuable predictions.

Keywords: Prevalence, non-compartmental, modelling, Infected, Susceptible, HIV.