Statistical Analysis of Rainfall Variability Effect on Wheat Production and Coping Strategies of Farmers: The Case of Agarfa District, Bale Zone, Ethiopia

Abstract

This study aimed to assess the rainfall variability and its effect on wheat production in Agarfa district for the last sixteen years.  Data on rainfall and crop yield for the period 2001-2016 was obtained from Agarfa meteorological station and District Agricultural Offices, respectively. Both qualitative and quantitative research design were used. Purposive sampling method was employed to select 256 respondents’ from five kebeles for interview. The collected data was analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively. Quantitative data was analyzed using mean, coefficient of variation, correlation and regression analysis to ascertain the relation, cause and effect relationship between rainfall characteristics and wheat yield. The trend analysis indicated that there was decreasing in rainfall by 4.5278 mm per year in the district over the last sixteen years. The productivity of winter wheat in the farm over the last sixteen years shows the trends of ups and downs which victimized by different climatic elements. The correlation coefficient indicated very strong positive relationship between productivity of wheat and annual rainfall. The regression model also depicts similar situation and corresponding p-value improved that the annual rainfall was the major determinants of wheat production in specified area. Hence, the investigator recommend that the district’s agricultural center and any concerned body should give prior attention to minimize the risks of rainfall variability by using different mechanisms like reforestation, making local meteorology station at nearby, and developing coping strategies of farmers.

Keywords: Rainfall variability, wheat production, Agarfa district

DOI: 10.7176/JBAH/11-4-02

Publication date: February 28^th 2021