Productivity Potential and Yield Gap Estimation of Pulse Crops in Ethiopian Agriculture

Abstract

This study aims to provide a detailed analysis of the pulse crops yield gaps for extra grain in production in Ethiopia. The study covers the period 2006/07-2020/21. Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia (CSA) Agricultural Sample Survey (AgSS) and crop variety register issue of the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) data were used for the analysis. The data was analyzed using descriptive statistics and econometric analysis. The descriptive analysis provides quantitative estimates of yield gaps to measure and compare yield potentials and actual yields. Pooled Mean-Group (PMG) model was used to analyze the impact of yield and area on production. After cereals, the second most important crop group (in terms of acreage) is pulses. The area cultivated of pulses is grown by 29.6 percent between 2006/07-2020/21, which is a faster growth compared to the oil crops area (-3.8 percent). Pulse production has grown significantly in the country over the past 16 years, rising from around 12.7 million quintals in 2006/07 to 32 million quintals in 2020/21 with growth rate of 151.7%. The production has more than doubled, because of a 64.3% increase in area under the crop and a 35.7% increase in yield during the same period. The average pulses yield level is very low (1.4 tons/ha) as compared to that of the estimated average potential (2.0 tons/ha) in the country for the studied crops. For the analyzed period, results shows 0.2 qt/ha, 8.5 qt/ha, 9.1 qt/ha, 5.7 qt/ha, 2.0 qt/ha, 16.7 qt/ha, and 7.9 qt/ha for chick-peas, faba beans, field peas, gibto, haricot beans, mung bean and, lentils yield gap existed when the national average yield was compared with that of the released cultivars potential under farmer management, respectively for the analyzed period 2020/21. Our findings suggest that if farmers had closed Yg, Ethiopia could have potential grain surplus of chick-peas, faba beans, field peas, gibto, haricot beans, mung bean, and lentils production by a respective 4, 427, 200, 8, 61, 67, and 80 thousand Mt, without expanding cropland area. Based on the Pooled Mean-Group (PMG) model result, if cultivated area and yield of crops are increased by 1% then the production growth will be increased by 1% and by 0.99% in the long run respectively. Overall, this study reveals that there are large yield gaps and that substantial benefit for food production are possible through closing these gaps, without the need for new technology and expanding cropland area.

Keywords: pulse crops, cropland area, potential yields, actual yields, yield gaps, crop production, Ethiopia

DOI: 10.7176/JCSD/68-01

Publication date:October 31^st 2022