Rainfall Variations as the Determinant of Malaria in the Federal Capital Territory Abuja, Nigeria

Abstract

This study highlights the increasing interest in identifying the parameters adequate to measure rainfall and wet day’s variations as the determinant of malaria occurrences and distribution for a period of twelve months (2012) in the Federal Capital Territory. Satellite data were developed to identify malaria risk area and to evaluate amounts of rainfall and the durations of wet or rainy days conducive to malaria outbreaks at appropriate scales. Secondly, the studies examine the correlation of monthly and annual malaria cases, and rainfall amounts, including wet days with a lag time of one year. The result of correlation analysis shows that relationship exists between the observed weather variables and malaria. The coefficients of determination R² of rainfall influencing malaria is 0.3109 (31.1%) and wet days influencing malaria is 0.3920 (39.2%). These results indicate that the rainfall amounts positively correlate with malaria cases with prediction estimate by 78.47% and 88.68% respectively when the peak was August (rainfall) and June (malaria). The study further shows that a significant rainfall variation was identified, and further revealed that certain necessary measures have to be adequately taken to ensure that the existing malaria problems are dealt with and further occurrence is minimized, if not forestalled all together. It is recommended that more attention should be given to weather and climate mechanism that determines the occurrence and distribution of malaria.

Keywords: rainfall, amount, wet day, duration, variation, determinant, malaria, occurrence, distribution, risk map