Climate Change and the Cocoa Production in the Tropical Rain Forest Ecological Zone of Ondo State, Nigeria

Abstract

The study examined whether or not there is long run equilibrium relationship between Cocoa yield and climate change (i.e. Rainfall, Temperature and Humidity). This is to ascertain the impact of climate change on cocoa yield in the study area. The unit root test was carried out and it was established cocoa and rainfall were non-stationary among the three selected climate change determinant (i.e. Rainfall, Humidity and Temperature.). Both at 1% and 5% level of significance, their absolute values were greater than the critical values (i.e. for cocoa;-2.855384>-3.610453 & -2.938987 and for rainfall; -1.591781>-3.610453 &-2.938987). Therefore, the other two climate change determinants variables (i.e. Temperature and Humidity) were not considered for co-integration since the unit root test revealed that they were stationary. Also, the Co-integration test was carried out; the trace statistic test reveals that at both 1% and 5% level of significance, that at 2 and 1 equations were co-integrated, since their absolute values were greater than the critical values at 1% and 5% level of significant. The Max-Eigen values also reveals that at both 1% and 5% level of significance, that at most 2 and 1 equations were co-integrated, since their absolute value  25.27>15.41 and 20.04; 20.61>14.07 and 18.63,. This corroborated the trace statistics, therefore, it was concluded that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between cocoa yield and rainfall. The results established the fact that cocoa is highly susceptible to drought and the pattern of cropping of cocoa is related to rainfall distribution.

Keywords: Cocoa, Rainfall, Humidity, Temperature and Co-integration