Analysis of Rainfall Variability and Farmers’ Perception towards it in Agrarian Community of Southern Ethiopia

Abstract

Rainfall variability has historically been a major cause of food insecurity and famines in Ethiopia. Obtaining scientific evidence regarding the annual and seasonal rainfall variability through statistical rainfall analysis and farmers’ perceptions about rainfall variability in the region provides a credible information to decision makers and end users. The present study focuses on five selected agriculture dominant areas (Hadiya, Alaba, Kambate Tambaro, Gurage and Silte zones) of the Southern Ethiopia. Seasonal and annual rainfall data extending from 1983-2012 has been analyzed using two rainfall indices (Precipitation concentration Index (PCI), Rainfall Anomaly Index (AI)) and Mann-Kendall trend test method. A total of 80 household respondents are accounted to assess rainfall variability with respect to farmers’ perspective. The years of occurrence of the maximum and minimum AI values in any particular season are not uniform for all the stations during the analysis window which is characteristic feature of high rainfall variability. The frequency of the minimum AI values is more in Kiremt and Belg season, whereas, maximum AI values are more palpable in Bega  The annual PCI for all the stations is highly variable which entails year to year non-uniform rainfall concentration over the stations. The PCI variability is more pronounced during the Bega season. Annual rainfall series at Alaba, Angacha, Fonko, Hossana and Wulberag stations show an increasing trend over the study period, however, for all other seven station there is no statistically significant trend observed. In view of farmers’ perception towards rainfall variability, on average 80 % of the respondents opined that there were rainfall variability in magnitude and frequency, while 11 % perceived as no change in rainfall pattern and 4 % responded that they do not know  whether it exists or not over the past 20 years. Majority of the respondents (80%) agree that the rainfall variability is due to combined effect of natural and man-induced impacts.

Keywords: Rainfall variability, concentration index, anomaly index, Farmers’ Perception, Trend analysis.