Estimation of Temperature Humidity Index Value Based on ¬CO2 Anthropogenic Emission and Green Open Space of Bogor City Using Dynamic System Approach

Abstract

Urban development in Bogor City has been responsible for the urban heat island effect and raised the air temperature. The main cause is the increasing of anthropogenic emission from fossil energy combustion and municipal solid waste treatment. On the other hand, the increasing of built up space and declining green open space also lead the increasing of the air temperature. Limited green open space reduced the capacity of environment to mitigate (purifying) itself. The purpose of this study was to: (i) estimate the minimum needs of green open space in accordance with its  CO₂ sink  capacity, (ii) analyze possible policy to support green growth based development in Bogor City, and (iii)  estimate CO₂ emission and Temperature Humidity Index value in the future using dynamic system approach. The result of this research, especially the study of the conditions of urban heat island effect, indicated that Bogor city would experience the urban heat island effect where the value was higher than 27⁰C in 2031. A Green scenario was developed using simulation is expected to be able to control urban heat island up to 2048. Moderate scenario has shown that the urban heat island effect will be experienced in 2039. Pessimistic scenario estimated that Bogor city would experience urban heat island effects in 2028.

Keywords: anthropogenic emission, built up, dynamic system, green open space, urban heat island