Simulation of Storm Surges in the South Central Coast of Vietnam Under Climate Change

Abstract

The research was supported by National Research Project Program of Vietnam: science and technology in response to climate change, natural resources and environmental management in the 2016-2020 period (program number: BĐKH/16-20), Developing a sustainable socio-economic model adapting to extreme natural disasters under climate change in the South Central region of Viet Nam. A case study of Ninh Thuan province (grant number: BĐKH.04/16-20).

Abstract

This paper presents the results of storm surge simulation in the South Central region of Vietnam using the Mike 21-FM HD model. Wind pressure fields of typical storms were first identified in period of 1986-2005 using the parametric wind field model. Storm surge risk was then simulated based on the rare 10, 50 and 100-year frequency corresponding to 2030, 2050, and 2100 scenarios. Storm surge model was finally calibrated and validated using the level of water measured in the November 2009 Typhoon Mirinae and October 2013 Typhoon Nari. The results show that storm surges were consistent with water level variation and amplitude; the maximum and minimum storm surges were 2.34m in the Binh Thuan coastal area and 0.78m in the Khanh Hoa coastal area, respectively. The results of this study demonstrated the use of MIKE 21-FM HD model for the simulation of storm surges in the future plays an important role in damage risk reduction caused by storm surges.

Keywords: storm surge simulation, climate change, Mike 21-FM HD model, South Central coast of Vietnam.

DOI: 10.7176/JEES/9-6-08

Publication date:June 30^th 2019