Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Coffee Production and Adaptation Mechanisms: The Case of Small-Holder Farmers at Dara Woreda, South Ethiopia

Abstract

This study was carried out with the objective of examining the extent of climate variability and its effect on coffee production and identifying determinants for farmers’ decisions to undertake adaptation measures in Dara woreda. A multistage sampling technique was employed to select peasant association. Qualitative data were gathered through focus group discussion, key informant’s interviews and quantitative data were also collected from 145 sample households. Logit model was used to identify the determinants for farmer’s decisions on adaptation measures, while linear regression and Pearson’s correlation were used to identify relationships and effects of climatic variables on coffee production. The results of this study reviled that, 93% of the respondents perceives the existence of reduction in rainfall, while 85% believes an increase in temperature over the last 20 years. The analysis of linear trend also show not only inter-annual and seasonal variability, but also a decreasing trend of rainfall in the area. The meteorological data also confirmed the increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures. Similarly, the annual yield of coffee productivity showed a decreasing tendency in the area for the period 1995-2014. Besides, the results of linear regression showed that, the amount of rainfall received and increased temperature significantly affected coffee production. Similarly Pearson’s correlations indicated negative relationship between temperature and coffee yield, and strong correlation between rainfall and coffee yield. On the other hand, results of the logit regression model illustrated that; education level, farm size, access to credit service and family size being the major determinants for the farmers’ decisions on adaptation measures in the area. Thus it would be vital to acknowledge the impacts of climate variability on coffee production in Dara woreda and considere the determinant factors to implement appropriate  adaptation measures in order to address the impacts of climate change and variability in the area.

Keywords: adaptation, climate variability, climate change, Dara woreda, logit model

DOI: 10.7176/JEES/15-4-02

Publication date:August 31^st 2025