Proposed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model for Forecasting Rainfall Pattern in the Navrongo Municipality, Ghana

Abstract

Changes in rainfall pattern directly or indirectly affect various sectors like agricultural, insurance and other allied fields that play major roles in the development of any economy. An agrarian country like Ghana cannot do without rain because its agricultural sector heavily depends on rain water. In this study, the rainfall data was modelled using SARIMA model. The model identified to be adequate for forecasting the rainfall data was ARIMA (0, 0, 1)(0, 1, 1)₁₂. An overall check of the model adequacy with the Ljung-Box revealed that this model was adequate for forecasting the rainfall data.

Keywords: Navrongo, Ghana, SARIMA, Agricultural, forecasting